Okay all you ghosts and goblins. we are officially a hand full of days away from the election and in my free time here at work I have been a political junkie gathering information and looking at raw data of poles collected and posted on line. I really don't care about national poles, because that is not how the president is elected. Those of you who believe we live in a democracy need to go back to High School Government class and realize that we are voting in a Democratic Republic, even for President. It is called the Electoral College and despite popular belief in our nation we actually have 51 elections for President as opposed to just one.
That being said it should be important to analyze the political map in such a fashion. there are plenty of poles, and poles of poles and blah blah blah. Back in the 80's (I think) there were some major union strike with car manufacturers (I think) and the car companies successfully crushed the unions on strike by noting that the average person at their company was earning a hansom salary. This was true, but they also included EVERYONES salary including the CEO. If one were to have looked at the median salary of the company it would have been halved of the number that the companies were implying.
Taking this concept to heart and the sheer quantity of polling data available I have analyzed the results using a median analysis method since June when Hillary Clinton bowed out of the race. Based on the figures I have collected from http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/ the results are in and they are not pretty. According to my analysis Barrack Obama should win the election by more than 2 to 1. He will win all of the Kerry states from 2004. In addition to these states he will also win the following states that voted for Bush in 2004:
Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.
Some easy calculator work shows the final result at Obama 378, McCain 160. I invite the three people that might read this post before the election to submit weather you think that Obama will end up with more or less electoral votes that 378. Everyone who gets it correct will get a virtual "treat" from my left over candy from Halloween.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Final Breakdown on Brazil:
Country of Origin: Argentina
Total time in country: 21 days
Music: The Samba! Move your feet as fast as you can! It doesn't really seem to matter if it is to the music or not.
People: Beautiful women might distract you from their boyfriends buying the next round with money from your pocket.
Transport: Buses are expensive, no movies AND NO A/C! What a bunch of crap.
Landscape: Green, lush, tropical paradise, quaint colonial areas, beautiful beaches. Yawn, seen it in other places too. The truly original place... Iguazu Falls
Food: My poorness was evident in my food choice in this country. I can tell you that bake ham and cheese rolls on every street corner get old quickly and it is really hard to find peanut butter.
Safety: Carnival had some obvious security issues as discussed, and the countryside is safe as in most countries, and in the big cities you just need to stay in the safe areas like any major city.
Gas prices: gas - 2.57 Reales/ gallon (5.49 USD/gallon), or the sugar cane ethanol for 3.62 USD/gallon.
Surprised by: How big the country is! Brazil is the next smallest country to the USA, and to think that we took a bus half way through it to get to Salvador, then turned around and went back a quarter of the way back to get to Rio, that is a lot of bus time
Final word: The unexpected gem! I had few expectations going into Brazil besides the pandemonium of Carnival. Carnival came through and so did all the other parts of the country. The countryside was beautiful, the beaches clean, and Rio vivacious. The Portuguese was funky for a couple of days but easy enough with the Spanish background, but this doesn't matter much as everyone there speaks body language.
Next stop: USA via Panama
Total time in country: 21 days
Music: The Samba! Move your feet as fast as you can! It doesn't really seem to matter if it is to the music or not.
People: Beautiful women might distract you from their boyfriends buying the next round with money from your pocket.
Transport: Buses are expensive, no movies AND NO A/C! What a bunch of crap.
Landscape: Green, lush, tropical paradise, quaint colonial areas, beautiful beaches. Yawn, seen it in other places too. The truly original place... Iguazu Falls
Food: My poorness was evident in my food choice in this country. I can tell you that bake ham and cheese rolls on every street corner get old quickly and it is really hard to find peanut butter.
Safety: Carnival had some obvious security issues as discussed, and the countryside is safe as in most countries, and in the big cities you just need to stay in the safe areas like any major city.
Gas prices: gas - 2.57 Reales/ gallon (5.49 USD/gallon), or the sugar cane ethanol for 3.62 USD/gallon.
Surprised by: How big the country is! Brazil is the next smallest country to the USA, and to think that we took a bus half way through it to get to Salvador, then turned around and went back a quarter of the way back to get to Rio, that is a lot of bus time
Final word: The unexpected gem! I had few expectations going into Brazil besides the pandemonium of Carnival. Carnival came through and so did all the other parts of the country. The countryside was beautiful, the beaches clean, and Rio vivacious. The Portuguese was funky for a couple of days but easy enough with the Spanish background, but this doesn't matter much as everyone there speaks body language.
Next stop: USA via Panama
Monday, October 13, 2008
Wrappin' It Up in Rio
After a week of chasing a bunch of girls through the streets of Salvador, and then getting chased back by several of them that turned out to not be girls; Carnival was over. This meant also that Dave and my traveling time together was done. We shared a special moment in the hostel as he left early one morning to go to Rio a couple of days before I went. There was a twinge of sadness in my voice when I asked him to not forget to turn out the light as he left. Dave wiped the sleep boogers out of his eyes, but it could have well be a tear as he grunt and closed the door. Jon was still dead to the world and said later that it took him a full week to recover from the chaos that was a week in Salvador. Some might say he never did!
Before I could run off to Rio I needed some good R and R from my 3 month and 3 week vacation. I took off to Lençois a nice little mountain town without any mountains to the west of Salvador. I ran into some Irish chaps who like all good Irishmen loved to drink. So we took to getting rid of our week long hangovers though the old Irish method of drinking more which seems to work well enough. Lençois had some fun hikes that we didn't do, some interesting geological formations that we didn't see, and some very pleasant natural hot springs that we didn't swim in. Like much of Brazil the tourism industry gets a little outrageous for the month before and after Carnival, and this being the end of my trip (read: strapped for cash) I was perfectly content to sit creek-side and enjoy a good book about cocaine smuggling.
After the batteries were charged for another go at a major party city we headed back towards Rio. The bus ride took us a few days with a stop at beach town where we enjoyed what most people enjoy at a good beach.
A couple of days later we found ourselves in a street party in Rio. I asked some of the locals in my horrible Portuguese if this was still left over from the Carnival party that was now a week old. She laughed and said that this 10 sq block area was always full on a Tuesday night with the hipsters from Brazil and all over the world. The famous beaches are also quite the sight to see, but like the other beaches around the world there is the sandy part and then there is the ocean part. Ipanema though reminded me of what one might see on Baywatch.
I was really impressed by the Christ Redeemer and the story he's always telling of the best fishing trip ever. It's location atop a rocky bulge in the middle of the city gives awesome presence even in the sprawling suburbs. From the top it is possible to see the Sugar Loaf as seen in the picture in this post, and the Maracana which is the Brazilian shrine to soccer. The Christ Redeemer's fishing trip gives it great presence in the entire city, but its placement in the modern 7 Wonders of the World I find a little cheeky. I was more impressed by the Statue of Liberty; something I alost skipped on my trip to New York but was astounded how impressed I was standing at it's feet. Ms. Liberty's construction was also more difficult and an achievement at the time, but I digress.
I made arrangement so that the last thing I did in country was go see a soccer game in the Maracana. It is the largest stadium in South America, officially holds 95,000 fans and has been reported to have held unofficially around 200,000 fans for a game back in the 1950's. As is the etiquette in all other South American countries the end zones are reserved for the general masses and where the large banners and flares go off. When goals were scored the look of exhilaration at one end was matched only by the dejected look from the opposing end of the stadium. With everyone wanting to sit in the worst seat to be a part of the best atmosphere, we walked into the stadium 3 minutes before the kick-off of the Semi-final match and sat 18 rows behind the teams at midfield, the best seats in the house!
The Irish lads and I tried to wander up into the crazy section, but my poor Portuguese and their non-existent Portuguese did not allow us to talk our way past security. It's amazing how the grass is always greener, and we were put off by our unsuccessful attempt to join the animated areas as we scuffeled back to our seats at midfield. The game end 2-1 and was back and forth the entire way between to Rio clubs that were both well represented in the stadium. This definitely makes the list as a top three sporting events I've seen in person, and certainly one of the best venues in which to see nearly 100,000 people go crazy at the same time.
After the game I went straight out to the airport where I sat and waited for my red eye flight to Panama and eventually home. Brazil and Carnival did not disappoint as a good place to end a trip of this caliber. Check South America of the places to visit in the world. Next stop... SE Asia. I guess I'd better go get a job so that I can eventually pay for it.
Friday, October 3, 2008
The Job
So lots of people have asked what it is exactly that I do. To make a baseball reference, I am the utility player. I fill in for others and do all the jobs that no else has time or the patience to do. It's an interesting position because I get to sit in the high level meeting and listen to the people narrate the story of what is happening. In these weekly and monthly meeting I am the one that takes the notes and writes the story. I write the minutes to make my company look good, and then the three bosses edit them to make us look even better.
The basics of the job is construction management for THE major ports company in Panama. It is owned by the largest ports managing company (based in Hong Kong) in the world. As the Panama Canal expansion takes place this port is moving more containers than ever before with only more work on the way. We are building a large transfer station (read Parking Lot) for containers. We have taken a large swamp and are in the process of turning it into a concrete slab. There has been quite a bit of noticeable difference made even in just the past 4 months of my employment.
Picture taken 11 July 08 (looking south) of the area that was dredged and then filled with sand. The river on the left side has been moved to run its present path. Note also the dock construction along the right side of the picture.
Picture taken 15 August 08 (looking north). Notice shipping containers at bottom of screen stacked six high. We are building more storage so that the entire sand area will have capacity to store shipping boxes. Eventually the dock will be extended an additional 500 meters along the east side of the canal to where it will make land fall. It is about 50 m wide.
Picture taken 30 September 08. I estimate the the sand area to be about 18-20 football fields.
The basics of the job is construction management for THE major ports company in Panama. It is owned by the largest ports managing company (based in Hong Kong) in the world. As the Panama Canal expansion takes place this port is moving more containers than ever before with only more work on the way. We are building a large transfer station (read Parking Lot) for containers. We have taken a large swamp and are in the process of turning it into a concrete slab. There has been quite a bit of noticeable difference made even in just the past 4 months of my employment.
Picture taken 11 July 08 (looking south) of the area that was dredged and then filled with sand. The river on the left side has been moved to run its present path. Note also the dock construction along the right side of the picture.
Picture taken 15 August 08 (looking north). Notice shipping containers at bottom of screen stacked six high. We are building more storage so that the entire sand area will have capacity to store shipping boxes. Eventually the dock will be extended an additional 500 meters along the east side of the canal to where it will make land fall. It is about 50 m wide.
Picture taken 30 September 08. I estimate the the sand area to be about 18-20 football fields.
Monday, September 15, 2008
An Outsider's Perspective
As an expat living abroad I feel like I get a perspective on the forthcoming election in November that not many Americans do. There are a thousand ways to breakdown this election, but the most simplistic point of view is an X in one of two columns. If you want your vote to count it will go into the column of either Obama/Biden or McCain/Palin.
Despite the candidates best efforts most of the population and even the voting population will cast a ballot without ever going to see the candidate speak in person, and even fewer get to ask a question never mind a series of questions. So this election boils down to rhetoric and public speaking. This is where my perspective comes in because I don't hear all the spin doctors and don't get annoying photo calls offering to help. All I see is the candidates and listen to their words.
From having listened to both candidates over the past few months several thinks have become abundantly clear. Both sides offer the public what they think the general population wants to hear. Despite saying they are going to get specific both candidates will make one sentence comments about a range of topics and call this specific. I don't blame them for this, and I THANK them for it. I don't care how good of a public speaker Obama is, if he went into specifics details and footnotes of his health plan he would be more boring than McCain to listen too.
So the words they say are very similar, so to me it comes down to speech delivery style. This is one of the largest contrasts between the candidates, and how they try to influence the voters. First you have Obama who speaks like a Monet painting. His broad stroke sweeping comments don't make too much sense if you listen to them one at a time, and if one were to stand too close all that can be seen are the streaks of colors that have no connection. If one steps back and looks at the entire speech the picture comes into focus, is quite elegant but is fuzzy at best. This shows Obama to be thoughtful and to think through problems, let's just hope he doesn't take too long to make a decision.
McCain, in stark contrast speaks like a connect-the-dots drawing. He made a series of short bullet points on a page, then makes comments to try to give the listener the ability to fill in the rest of the drawing. These short comments are sometimes funny and clever which all plays well in the news and to the beer-drinkin'-backyard-BBQin' crowd that most Americans like to think they are. The comments are simple and the delivery is generic enough allow each person to fill in the line drawing how they prefer to view the situation. It may demonstrate the level of sophistication in McCain's thought process.
So there it is! My 22 cents worth up from 2 cents due to inflation. I tried to be impartial in writing this, and I hope my detached location can help the reader to make their own decision about what kind of a person they want their next president to be.
Despite the candidates best efforts most of the population and even the voting population will cast a ballot without ever going to see the candidate speak in person, and even fewer get to ask a question never mind a series of questions. So this election boils down to rhetoric and public speaking. This is where my perspective comes in because I don't hear all the spin doctors and don't get annoying photo calls offering to help. All I see is the candidates and listen to their words.
From having listened to both candidates over the past few months several thinks have become abundantly clear. Both sides offer the public what they think the general population wants to hear. Despite saying they are going to get specific both candidates will make one sentence comments about a range of topics and call this specific. I don't blame them for this, and I THANK them for it. I don't care how good of a public speaker Obama is, if he went into specifics details and footnotes of his health plan he would be more boring than McCain to listen too.
So the words they say are very similar, so to me it comes down to speech delivery style. This is one of the largest contrasts between the candidates, and how they try to influence the voters. First you have Obama who speaks like a Monet painting. His broad stroke sweeping comments don't make too much sense if you listen to them one at a time, and if one were to stand too close all that can be seen are the streaks of colors that have no connection. If one steps back and looks at the entire speech the picture comes into focus, is quite elegant but is fuzzy at best. This shows Obama to be thoughtful and to think through problems, let's just hope he doesn't take too long to make a decision.
McCain, in stark contrast speaks like a connect-the-dots drawing. He made a series of short bullet points on a page, then makes comments to try to give the listener the ability to fill in the rest of the drawing. These short comments are sometimes funny and clever which all plays well in the news and to the beer-drinkin'-backyard-BBQin' crowd that most Americans like to think they are. The comments are simple and the delivery is generic enough allow each person to fill in the line drawing how they prefer to view the situation. It may demonstrate the level of sophistication in McCain's thought process.
So there it is! My 22 cents worth up from 2 cents due to inflation. I tried to be impartial in writing this, and I hope my detached location can help the reader to make their own decision about what kind of a person they want their next president to be.
Monday, September 1, 2008
The Beavers in Beaver Staium
OK, so the beavs got off to a bad start this past Thursday. I'm thrilled to be taking a long weekend and going to Beaver Stadium in Happy Vally on the Penn State Campus. I am going with Dave (with whom I traveled South America) and some of his fellow Penn State Alums. It should be great to go see Joe Paterno in his senile 82 year old self and watch 107,000 fans sit silently as the Beavers gain some redemption.
Last I heard this is going to be the ESPN game of the week, so keep your eyes open for me. I'll be the only one in orange and black (and probably beer) that will be cheering and geering when the final gun goes off.
Last I heard this is going to be the ESPN game of the week, so keep your eyes open for me. I'll be the only one in orange and black (and probably beer) that will be cheering and geering when the final gun goes off.
Monday, August 25, 2008
The Sports Report in Panama
Ok, so the Saladino Effect has gone a little over the top at this point. He is now in every other commercial, every politician has solicited his endorsement, and every baby - boy and girl - will be named Irving or Saladino or both for at least the next month. So as the Olympics draw to a close coverage once again returns to the America's pass time. As I sit here and watch the sports highlights I can't help but notice the stark differences between the coverage here and back home.
Good ol' ESPN loves their Yankees and Red Soxs, Ozzie Guillen's mouth, Brett Farve's arm, Tiger Wood's knee, whether Boston Celtics will repeat (who thinks about the NBA in August), and the insignificance of preseason football. But guaranteed to be in every hour of Sports Center are some of the best plays in the sports world and an attempt to cover at least most of the games of the day, and then there are the plays of the day and web gems. Most local sports casters have a local and shorter version of this same format.
Contrast that to what you get in this country. The leading story on any reputable sports cast here in Panama is with Mariano Rivera. The likely future Hall o' Famer is probably the most famous sportster to come out of Panama. After watching 7 of his 9 pitches to win, loose, draw or save for the Yankees the focus switches to all the tier two Panamanian ball players. A tier two ball player in Panama is defined here has any player in the Major Leagues that is not Mariano Rivera. One might see Carlos Lee fan twice and hit an insignificant ground ball to the second baseman; or Carlos Ruís catching for the starting pitcher of the Phillies... in the bullpen before the game.
All of the insignificant plays that these and the other Panamanian players make will be well documented, but will they note the great catch made by Ichiro to save extra innings? Not a chance. Will they show Ronaldinho's spectacular bicycle kick goal? Maybe. Will they show any other sport besides baseball and soccer? No way!
I am reminded of the banner that I saw in Costa Rica right before the World Cup 2006 in which Costa Rica lost three out of three games and was eliminated. The banner read: "Congratulations Costa Rica, we made it to the World Cup Tournament!" They were happy just to have made it. In the same way the Panamanians want to see the Panamanian players no matter how significant or insignificant to be able to share in the glory of just making it, and forget the actual great plays, results, and commentary on significance.
And to this I say, rock on Manny Acosta! Carlos Beltran hit the game winning double off you last night, but someone hand to throw the loosing pitch. All of your countrymen (all of whom claim to be related to you by at least a cuña'o) down here will love you for making it onto the mound in the majors and will happily forget the details. We made it!
Good ol' ESPN loves their Yankees and Red Soxs, Ozzie Guillen's mouth, Brett Farve's arm, Tiger Wood's knee, whether Boston Celtics will repeat (who thinks about the NBA in August), and the insignificance of preseason football. But guaranteed to be in every hour of Sports Center are some of the best plays in the sports world and an attempt to cover at least most of the games of the day, and then there are the plays of the day and web gems. Most local sports casters have a local and shorter version of this same format.
Contrast that to what you get in this country. The leading story on any reputable sports cast here in Panama is with Mariano Rivera. The likely future Hall o' Famer is probably the most famous sportster to come out of Panama. After watching 7 of his 9 pitches to win, loose, draw or save for the Yankees the focus switches to all the tier two Panamanian ball players. A tier two ball player in Panama is defined here has any player in the Major Leagues that is not Mariano Rivera. One might see Carlos Lee fan twice and hit an insignificant ground ball to the second baseman; or Carlos Ruís catching for the starting pitcher of the Phillies... in the bullpen before the game.
All of the insignificant plays that these and the other Panamanian players make will be well documented, but will they note the great catch made by Ichiro to save extra innings? Not a chance. Will they show Ronaldinho's spectacular bicycle kick goal? Maybe. Will they show any other sport besides baseball and soccer? No way!
I am reminded of the banner that I saw in Costa Rica right before the World Cup 2006 in which Costa Rica lost three out of three games and was eliminated. The banner read: "Congratulations Costa Rica, we made it to the World Cup Tournament!" They were happy just to have made it. In the same way the Panamanians want to see the Panamanian players no matter how significant or insignificant to be able to share in the glory of just making it, and forget the actual great plays, results, and commentary on significance.
And to this I say, rock on Manny Acosta! Carlos Beltran hit the game winning double off you last night, but someone hand to throw the loosing pitch. All of your countrymen (all of whom claim to be related to you by at least a cuña'o) down here will love you for making it onto the mound in the majors and will happily forget the details. We made it!
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