Political Over/Under

Okay all you ghosts and goblins. we are officially a hand full of days away from the election and in my free time here at work I have been a political junkie gathering information and looking at raw data of poles collected and posted on line. I really don't care about national poles, because that is not how the president is elected. Those of you who believe we live in a democracy need to go back to High School Government class and realize that we are voting in a Democratic Republic, even for President. It is called the Electoral College and despite popular belief in our nation we actually have 51 elections for President as opposed to just one.

That being said it should be important to analyze the political map in such a fashion. there are plenty of poles, and poles of poles and blah blah blah. Back in the 80's (I think) there were some major union strike with car manufacturers (I think) and the car companies successfully crushed the unions on strike by noting that the average person at their company was earning a hansom salary. This was true, but they also included EVERYONES salary including the CEO. If one were to have looked at the median salary of the company it would have been halved of the number that the companies were implying.

Taking this concept to heart and the sheer quantity of polling data available I have analyzed the results using a median analysis method since June when Hillary Clinton bowed out of the race. Based on the figures I have collected from http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/ the results are in and they are not pretty. According to my analysis Barrack Obama should win the election by more than 2 to 1. He will win all of the Kerry states from 2004. In addition to these states he will also win the following states that voted for Bush in 2004:

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.

Some easy calculator work shows the final result at Obama 378, McCain 160. I invite the three people that might read this post before the election to submit weather you think that Obama will end up with more or less electoral votes that 378. Everyone who gets it correct will get a virtual "treat" from my left over candy from Halloween.